Black Metal Regular Meeting: This week, the steel market showed mixed trends, while raw materials may remain relatively strong.

Category: Industry News

Time:2025-09-23

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the next period, with arrivals increasing compared to the previous week. On the demand side, pig-iron production may rebound from the prior week. On the inventory front, this week’s overall unloading and inbound volume is likely to exceed outbound shipments, leading to a build-up of iron ore stocks at the 47 major ports. As a result, iron ore prices may experience narrow-range, slightly weaker fluctuations this week.

　　I. Status of Each Raw Material Type

　　(1) Iron Ore

　　On the supply side, global iron ore shipments are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the next period, with arrivals increasing compared to the previous week. On the demand side, pig-iron production may rebound from the prior week. Meanwhile, on the inventory front, overall unloading and inbound volumes this week are likely to exceed outbound shipments, leading to a build-up of iron ore stocks at the 47 major ports. As a result, iron ore prices are expected to remain range-bound and slightly weaker this week.

　　(II) Coal Coke

　　Coke supply continues to remain stable at high levels, while molten iron production at steel plants has rebounded relatively quickly. Coupled with pre-holiday restocking demand, although both supply and demand have recently increased, the overall recovery in molten iron is outpacing that of coke producers. As a result, inventories are still expected to shift downstream from upstream sources. Meanwhile, a few individual coke producers are driving bullish sentiment, but most mainstream coke companies remain cautious, potentially initiating the first round of price hikes this week.

　　(III) Scrap Steel

　　Steel mills are finding it difficult to significantly increase incoming shipments, as scrap steel inventories remain low and continue to decline. On the demand side, electric furnace steelmakers are currently operating at the brink of profitability, while the cost-effectiveness of scrap steel has weakened. As a result, steelmakers are unlikely to boost their scrap usage substantially. However, with the National Day holiday approaching, most steel plants are expected to replenish their库存, which could provide upward momentum for scrap steel prices. Still, market sentiment has once again turned cautious and watchful, limiting the potential for further price increases in the short term.

　　(4) Ferroalloys

　　This week, the supply side is expected to remain robust, with strong cost dynamics supporting iron-silicon prices at a solid level. Meanwhile, manganese-silicon costs remain firm at the raw material end. Overall, both silicon prices are anticipated to perform strongly this week.

　　II. Overview of Steel Product Varieties

　　(1) Construction Steel

　　(II) Medium- and Thick-Plate

　　Focus will be on the progress of steel mills resuming production and the trend of end-user inventory replenishment. If demand fails to pick up significantly, the market could face further downward pressure. Overall, we expect medium- and thick-plate prices to fluctuate narrowly this week.

　　(III) Cold and Hot Rolling

　　This week, the supply and demand dynamics for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel did not show any seasonal easing, with overall market conditions remaining relatively stable—but inventory depletion has been trending at a slower pace. Market participants continue to adopt a cautious short-term stance, yet there’s still limited willingness to proactively sell at lower prices. As a result, there’s no clear catalyst for a significant easing of supply-demand tensions this week. With peak season ongoing and production levels staying high, the market is unlikely to see substantial upward momentum. Meanwhile, cold-rolled steel inventories have begun to recover slightly in the short term, though overall depletion remains sluggish. Consequently, spot prices for both hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are expected to remain range-bound this week.

Keywords: Black Metal Regular Meeting: This week, the steel market showed mixed trends, while raw materials may remain relatively strong.

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