Morning Reading: Steel inventories surged by 1.28 million tons during the holiday period; summary of performance for black commodity sectors

　　◎ This week, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. Among them, steel mill inventories stood at 4.7256 million tons, up 586,300 tons week-on-week; meanwhile, social inventories totaled 11.2816 million tons, rising by 692,300 tons compared to the prior week.

　　◎ Performance of Black-Color Products During National Day Holiday:

　　(1) Steel Billets: Prices remained stable during the National Day holiday period as the market saw an increase in supply. Meanwhile, downstream rolling mills experienced significantly weaker purchasing demand due to production restrictions. Inventory continues to build up, though overall levels remain lower than last year's同期水平. Currently, steel billet costs are approaching the break-even point. It is expected that nationwide steel billet prices will likely continue their steady, consolidating trend after the holiday. For details, please see below.

　　(2) Construction Steel: During the National Day holiday period, spot market prices remained largely stable. At the same time, pre-holiday stocking sentiment was weak, leading to subdued expectations of price hikes after the festival. If post-holiday demand fails to rebound as anticipated, and inventory accumulation continues afterward, the mismatch between supply and demand may persist. As a result, the spot market is expected to experience predominantly volatile trading in the post-holiday period. For details, please see below.

　　(3) Hot-rolled coil: Mainstream market prices remained largely stable compared to pre-holiday levels, with fluctuations in major markets ranging around 10–30 yuan/ton. During the holiday period, market demand was relatively sluggish. Additionally, higher-than-usual traffic during the National Day holiday slightly disrupted logistics and transportation. As a result, shipments during the holiday were notably slow, leading to a significant buildup of inventory. Prices are expected to weaken after the holiday. More details >>

　　(4) Cold-rolled coil: During the National Day holiday, mainstream market prices across China remained weakly stable. Market transactions showed no significant change compared to pre-holiday levels. It is expected that the cold-rolled coil market will likely continue its weakly stable trend after the holiday. More details >>

　　(5) Medium- and Thick-Plate Market: During the holiday period, prices in most regions remained largely stable, with inventories slightly accumulating. As steel plants have been primarily undergoing maintenance ahead of the holidays, supply pressure has yet to emerge—though it may gradually ease after the festival. Prices are expected to stabilize first before rebounding afterward. However, it’s still crucial to monitor the pace at which demand picks up, as well as the resumption of production activities by steelmakers. For details, please see below.

　　(6) Iron Ore: The iron ore market remained relatively sluggish during the National Day holiday period, with overseas swaps fluctuating narrowly. Meanwhile, import iron ore spot and forward price indices continued to trade largely stable. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, most industry participants believe that although steelmakers may see some concentrated restocking demand, this impact is expected to be relatively short-lived. As a result, both indices and premium prices are likely to shift toward a weaker trend. For details>>

　　(7) Scrap Steel: During the National Day holiday, steel mills primarily focused on depleting their existing inventories. Post-holiday, to maintain continuous production, there will be a temporary need for restocking. However, given that steel mills are currently grappling with severely limited profit margins, this directly dampens demand for scrap steel. Looking ahead, the domestic scrap steel market is expected to follow an overall "initial rise followed by a decline" trend after the 2025 National Day holiday. For details>>

　　(8) Coke: The coke market remained strong during the National Day holiday period. The first round of price hikes for coke took effect on October 1st. Coke producers experienced good sales, though logistics in some regions were slightly reduced due to holiday disruptions and adverse weather conditions. Nonetheless, most companies continued operating with low inventory levels. More details >>

　　◎ According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from October 1 to 8, the cumulative number of inter-regional passenger trips across society is expected to exceed 2.432 billion, reaching a new historical high—with an average of 304 million trips per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.

　　◎On October 9, the central bank will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation through a multiple-price bidding process with fixed amounts and interest rates, featuring a tenor of 3 months (91 days).

　　◎The IMF projects that the global economic growth rate will be around 3% in the medium term. By 2029, global public debt is expected to surpass 100% of GDP, with developed nations and emerging market economies leading the way.

　　◎ On October 8, the U.S. Senate voted on both the Republican version of the short-term funding bill passed by the House and the Democratic alternative—but neither measure passed. As a result, the U.S. federal government remains shut down.

　　◎ The Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that most officials indicated further policy easing in 2025 could be appropriate, while a minority of officials might have supported holding steady on interest rates in September.

　　◎ Early on the morning of October 9, local time, Palestine's Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has agreed to a Gaza ceasefire agreement.

　　◎ This week, production of the five major steel varieties reached 8.6331 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 37,600 tons.

　　◎ From September 29 to October 5, Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 28.259 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 382,000 tons compared to the previous week. Specifically, Australia’s shipments totaled 19.799 million tons, down 481,000 tons week-on-week, while Brazil’s shipments reached 8.460 million tons, up 99,000 tons from the prior week.

　　◎ From September 29 to October 5, China's total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports reached 27.758 million tons, an increase of 1.721 million tons compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, arrivals at 45 Chinese ports totaled 26.087 million tons, up by 2.482 million tons week-on-week. At the six northern ports, total arrivals amounted to 14.516 million tons, marking a weekly rise of 4.502 million tons.

　　◎ This week, the average tax-free cost of hot metal at Tangshan's mainstream sample steel plants was 2,222 yuan per ton, while the average tax-inclusive cost of steel billets stood at 2,979 yuan per ton—both down 1 yuan per ton from the previous week. Compared to the October 8th ex-factory price of general square billets at 2,950 yuan per ton, steel plants are now averaging a loss of 29 yuan per ton, a weekly decrease of 1 yuan per ton.

　　◎ This week, the operating rate of key national hot-rolled strip steel producers stood at 73.00%, rising 1.00 percentage point from the previous week but falling 2.00 percentage points month-on-month. Meanwhile, capacity utilization dropped to 76.69%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points compared to the prior week.

　　◎ This week, the average profit for independent coking plants across the country was 9 yuan per ton of coke; Shanxi's quasi-first-grade coke averaged a profit of 17 yuan per ton, while Shandong's quasi-first-grade coke earned an average profit of 63 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, Inner Mongolia's second-grade coke experienced an average loss of 51 yuan per ton.

　　◎ This week, the capacity utilization rate of 135 lan炭 enterprises nationwide was 41.89%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week; average daily production reached 156,700 tons, up by 5,800 tons compared to the prior week; lan炭 inventory stood at 330,400 tons, rising by 68,300 tons week-on-week; meanwhile, raw coal stocks totaled 1.277 million tons, increasing by 22,000 tons from the previous week.

　　◎ This week, the capacity utilization rate of 462 nationwide coal mines producing power stood at 91.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; average daily output reached 5.529 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared to the prior week.

　　◎ This week, the average daily coal consumption at 493 coal-fired power plants nationwide was 3.625 million tons, down 69,000 tons from the previous week; coal stockpiles stood at 95.204 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to the prior week; and the available inventory duration reached 26.3 days.

　　◎ On October 7, the European Union announced steel import restrictions, proposing a significant reduction in the quotas for steel imports eligible for tariff exemptions, and raising the steel tariff rate from 25% to 50%.

　　◎ On October 7, the Daqin Railway launched its 2025 autumn centralized maintenance work. This round of concentrated repairs will run from October 7 to October 26, lasting a total of 20 days, during which the Daqin Railway will suspend operations for 180 minutes each day.

　　◎ The International Copper Study Group forecasts that global copper production will grow by 1.4% in 2025, with an expected increase of 2.3% in 2026.

　　◎ BYD's new energy vehicle sales in September reached 396,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%. Seres' new energy vehicle sales hit 44,700 units in September, up 19.44% from the same period last year. SAIC Motor sold 440,000 complete vehicles in September, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 40.4%.

　　◎ The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, starting October 14, 2025, it will impose new port fees on three categories of China-related vessels under Section 301.

　　◎ According to tracking by International Ship Net, from September 29 to October 5, 2025, shipyards worldwide received a total of 18 new ship orders. Among them, Chinese shipyards secured 13 new orders; South Korean shipyards won 4 new orders; and Finnish shipyards also received related new ship orders.