After the National Day holiday, the price of hot-rolled strip steel in China may rise first and then decline

Overview: In 2025. the total supply of hot-rolled strip steel in China will be at a high level, with structural optimization and an increase in high-end demand driving premiums. The price center fluctuated, rebounding first and then falling back in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decline in average price but a slight increase in gross profit. The policy of strengthening science and technology innovation to promote supply optimization, coupled with the resilience of demand in manufacturing industries such as excavators and new energy vehicles, supports the continuation of the pattern of strong competition and weak competition. Mid Autumn Festival and National Day preparations have been launched, and the expected support for the peak season in the fourth quarter may rebound after the holiday, but the sustainability of emotions and the substantial improvement in demand need need to be verified. The following text will analyze the current coiling situation in key areas of strip steel in China and the evolution of pre - and post holiday data over the years.

1、 In terms of price

In 2025. the domestic hot-rolled strip steel market will continue to fluctuate and decline for nearly three years, showing a stage characteristic of "first suppression, then rise, and then fall back". The price center will slightly increase year-on-year, and the amplitude will narrow. The core contradiction still focuses on the supply-demand imbalance.

In the first two quarters, prices continued to fluctuate downward due to intensified supply homogenization competition and weak demand in the real estate and manufacturing industries caused by the "general to excellent" transformation. In July, the rebound in iron ore and coke prices drove up costs, coupled with macroeconomic expectations, resulting in a rare rebound of 300-330 yuan/ton in prices. However, due to the lack of substantial increase in terminal demand, the rebound lacked sustainability. In the third quarter, there was a return to oscillation and decline. The settlement average price of North China strip steel in September was reduced by 70-80 yuan/ton compared to August, mainly due to the rebound after the supply decline (the operating rate in Beijing Tianjin Hebei increased to 75%), and the inventory increased by 312000 tons year-on-year. The worsening supply-demand contradiction combined with weak demand during the off-season had an impact.

As of the end of September, the annual price ranges for Tangshan, Lecong, and Wuxi were 3060-3400 yuan/ton, 3160-3490 yuan/ton, and 3140-3500 yuan/ton, respectively, with a range of 330-360 yuan/ton; On September 23rd, prices in the three regions increased by 200-230 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting the strengthening role of cost side support, but weak demand still restricts the market from escaping the volatile pattern.

二、供需数据

As shown in Table 1 above, the strip steel market before and after the National Day in the past 10 years has shown distinctive cyclical and structural characteristics. At the price level, it rose after the festival in 2015-2019. stabilized in 2019. and some steel mills declined slightly. From 2020 to 2022. it will mainly rise during holidays and after the festival. In 2023. it will fall back year on year due to the impact of macroeconomic and epidemic conditions. In 2024. it will show a trend of "favorable policies before the festival, and adjustment after the festival will fall back". The overall fluctuation is closely related to macroeconomic policies and cost expectations.

On the supply and demand side, the supply side has remained relatively high after the holiday compared to before, with only a slight decrease in monthly capacity utilization rate in 2023. In terms of inventory, there has been a trend of accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday in the past decade, but in recent years, the accumulated inventory has significantly narrowed compared to before, reflecting a more flexible and cautious market inventory adjustment. Prices are generally driven by policies and inventory replenishment in the short term, while in the long term, they are determined by the matching degree between terminal demand (manufacturing, exports, etc.) and supply. After the holiday, prices tend to show a stage characteristic of "fluctuating adjustment" or "first rising and then falling".

The demand during the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in 2025 has become a key variable in price trends. At present, the supply of hot-rolled strip steel industry chain is relatively high, inventory is under pressure, and the table needs to rebound. Although the weekly supply-demand contradiction has slightly eased, the overall situation is still in a state of "strong supply and weak demand".

From a regional perspective, as of the end of September 2025. the social inventory of hot-rolled strip steel in Tangshan has slightly exceeded that of coil steel, and the gross profit of steel mills remains at around 150 yuan/ton. However, the number of orders received has decreased, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly, with limited incremental growth. The supply in the Northeast region is high, but the amount of resources reaching the market is not high, making it difficult to have a significant rebound after the holiday. In the East China region, the arrival resources are relatively low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not yet obvious. In the South China region, the supply of rolls and tapes is high, and inventory may be under pressure. Overall, there is unlikely to be a significant increase in domestic hot-rolled strip inventory after the holiday, and there may be a slight rebound in demand.

3、 Price difference between billet and strip

As shown in Figure 4. the price difference between steel billets and strip steel will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2025. only rebounding to over 250 yuan/ton in August, but it will accelerate and narrow again after only one month. At the beginning of 2025. the inventory of winter storage strip steel will accelerate and accumulate to a high point in nearly 4 years. The export situation of steel billets is still acceptable, and prices are supported. In addition, this year, steel mills' profits will be restored, and the supply level will be maintained at a high level. The overall strip steel price is relatively under pressure, and the steel billets will remain strong, with a low price difference between billets and strips. Until July, when steel mills concentrated on reducing production, the price of strip steel accelerated due to the boost of financial attributes, and the price difference between billet and strip steel was repaired in the short term. With the recovery of the supply side, the inventory of strip steel is now higher than the same period last year, and the price difference between billet and strip steel has shrunk again.

As of September 23rd, the difference between the ex factory price of 355mm hot-rolled strip steel and steel billet in Tangshan is 200 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period in 2023. it remained unchanged and narrowed by 50 yuan/ton. Narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. At present, in the early stage of the National Day holiday, there are downstream replenishment actions, but the scale is limited. At present, the operation of billet blending and steel rolling enterprises is fairly good, and some steel plants have plans to increase the quantity of billet taken away and reduce the supply of tropical steel due to the allocation of variety profits. At present, the operating rate of strip steel is relatively high, and it is expected that the supply of strip steel may be reduced in a small amount with the maintenance of production lines and the allocation of varieties after the savings. The price difference between raw materials and belts is expected to slightly widen after the holiday.

4、 Tape price difference

In 2025. there will be a significant structural differentiation in the price difference of domestic coil and strip related varieties. After the price difference between Tangshan cold-rolled base materials and strip steel decreased, it rebounded to a relatively high level of around 100 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous accumulation of strip steel inventory in the third quarter, which was slightly higher than that of hot coil inventory until late September, the price difference between coil and strip steel will continue to expand; On a national scale, as of September 19th, the price difference of Shanghai's coil belt was -10 yuan/ton (an increase of 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the price difference of coil snails was 62 yuan/ton (an increase of 332 yuan/ton year-on-year). The overall industry trend is characterized by strong rolls and weak snails, and the price difference between rolls and belts is expanding.

In the short term, the "strong coil and weak coil" pattern established by the April tariff rush for exports and the rebound in manufacturing demand, driven by the economic cycle, anti internal competition, and unified large market in the new stage, coupled with the start of differentiated inflation cycles in the manufacturing industry, still supports the logic of reshaping the margin of coil and screw differentiation. It is highly likely that the price strength of coil and building materials will continue in the fourth quarter, and iron ore will also maintain relative resistance to decline.

However, we need to be vigilant about the risks on the demand side: building materials have entered the scale verification cycle due to weak new construction data, and may face demand falsification if they rise after the holiday; Although sheet metal relies on the support of the manufacturing industry, there is an objective risk of a downward slope in the growth rate of peak season demand compared to last year, and the intensity of peak season demand may not be as expected. Overall, the market in the fourth quarter will exhibit the characteristic of "the reshaping of the spiral gap continues, but the uncertainty between supply and demand restricts price elasticity". It is necessary to focus on the two-way impact of the substantial increase in manufacturing demand and the verification results of building materials scale on the market.

5、 Summary

During the National Day holiday in 2025. steel companies may continue to maintain a high supply pattern driven by profits, and the release of peak season terminal demand remains to be observed, but the market inventory accumulation space is limited. The core logic of the market in the fourth quarter is the pattern of "maintaining high supply stability, demand verification game, price difference and inventory dynamic adjustment". Although there are expectations of a reduction in exports due to overseas anti-dumping policies, the export increment still has a foundation to maintain in October based on the trade surplus fundamentals. At the price level, in the short term, there may be a slight upward trend in supply structure optimization due to the post holiday stocking cycle and the expected reduction in finished products from steel companies' delivery of steel billets. In the long term, we need to face the pressure of weak real estate and export friction, and the supply-demand contradiction in the industrial chain will once again intensify marginally. In terms of operation, it is recommended that manufacturers focus on inventory dynamics and demand verification, with low inventory and flexible trading as the main focus, and strictly control market volatility risks. ‌