Luo Tiejun calls for jointly breaking the cycle of involutionary competition; the chief analyst of sheet and strip forecasts January steel prices.

Time:2025-12-16

According to International Ship Net, from December 8 to 14, 2025, shipyards worldwide received a total of 149 + 2 new ship orders. Among them, Chinese shipyards received 145 + 2 new ship orders, while South Korean shipyards received 2 new ship orders.

◎ The magazine "Qiushi" has published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Move." The article points out that expanding domestic demand is not merely a temporary measure; rather, it is a strategic move that is crucial both for economic stability and economic security.

◎ Luo Tiejun, a member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Association, called on steel companies to respond to the state’s efforts to combat “involutionary” and vicious competition, thereby safeguarding both industry interests and consumer interests. He expressed hope that automobile manufacturers and the automotive industry as a whole would recognize and support these initiatives.

◎ According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of December, the daily crude steel production of key steel enterprises reached 1.869 million tons, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month; steel inventory stood at 14.75 million tons, up 3.3% from the previous month.

◎ Cao Jianyong, chief analyst at Shanghai Steel联 Plate & Strip, said that January, traditionally a slow season for consumption, sees significant pressure on steel mills to take orders, and high social inventory has become the core contradiction. With overseas demand struggling to remain sustainable and export prices under downward pressure, this structural situation is likely to exacerbate the domestic supply-demand imbalance. We expect prices in January to first decline and then stabilize, with the price center of gravity shifting slightly downward.

◎ Nasdaq plans to extend the trading hours for stocks and exchange-traded products (ETPs) from the current five days a week, 16 hours per day, to 23 hours per day.

◎ The 56th Chairpersons’ Meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress was held on the afternoon of December 15 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The meeting decided that the 19th Session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress will be held in Beijing from December 22 to 27.

◎ According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year. From January to November, nationwide fixed-asset investment declined by 2.6% year-on-year.

◎ According to the National Energy Administration, by 2025, the country’s total installed power generation capacity will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%. Annual electricity consumption across society is expected to surpass 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time.

◎ The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments have issued the “Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Outsourcing,” aiming to cultivate, by 2030, a group of leading service outsourcing enterprises with strong international competitiveness and small- and medium-sized service outsourcing enterprises possessing distinctive competitive advantages. The plan also seeks to guide enterprises in establishing industrial ecosystems in emerging fields and actively participating in global industrial division and cooperation.

◎ Federal Reserve Chairman Williams stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for 2026. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025. Risks in the labor market have risen, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed’s policy has shifted from moderately tight to neutral.

◎ Argentina’s central bank will adjust its exchange rate fluctuation band mechanism in 2026. Starting in 2026, Argentina plans to widen the foreign exchange rate fluctuation band on a monthly basis in line with the monthly CPI increase.

◎ South Korea’s “national team” announces market rescue measures! The National Pension Service of Korea announced that it will adopt a more “flexible” approach to strategic foreign exchange hedging in order to support the won’s exchange rate. Meanwhile, the NPS has extended its foreign exchange swap agreement with the Bank of Korea by another year, until the end of 2026.

◎ On December 15, the nationwide spot trade volume of iron ore at major ports reached 8.58 million tons, down 2.1% from the previous month. Meanwhile, the trade volume of construction steel among 237 leading traders totaled 101,200 tons, up 11.9% from the previous month.

◎ On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a notice including certain steel products under the scope of export licensing management. The re-implementation of this policy will, in the short term, pose challenges such as a slower pace of exports and rising compliance costs. However, in the medium to long term, it will effectively curb the乱象 of “buy-and-sell” export practices, optimize the structure of exports, ease international trade tensions, and provide strong support for the green and low-carbon transformation of the steel industry.

◎ From December 8 to 14, the total volume of iron ore arriving at China’s 47 ports reached 29.281 million tons, an increase of 35.89 million tons from the previous week. The total volume arriving at China’s 45 ports was 27.234 million tons, up 24.29 million tons from the previous week.

◎ From December 8 to 14, the total global iron ore shipments reached 35.925 million tons, an increase of 2.240 million tons from the previous week. Total shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 29.655 million tons, up 3.102 million tons from the previous week.

◎ As of December 15, the total inventory of scrap steel at 300 major and short-process steel mills nationwide reached 5.2213 million tons, an increase of 1.15%. Inventory turnover days stood at 7.9 days, up 0.1 day; daily consumption totaled 557,500 tons, down 0.23%; and daily deliveries reached 577,200 tons, up 0.30%.

◎ On December 15, the average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace steel mills producing construction steel was 3,321 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan per ton compared to last Friday. The average profit margin was a loss of 20 yuan per ton, while the profit from off-peak electricity usage stood at 92 yuan per ton.

◎ According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2025, China’s crude steel output reached 69.87 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year; from January to November, crude steel output totaled 891.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year. The production figures for major industrial products are as follows:

◎ According to a compilation by Mysteel, planning proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan in several provinces call for strengthening the clean and efficient utilization of coal; continuously releasing high-quality coal production capacity; accelerating the upgrading and transformation of coal-fired power plants; and promoting peaking of coal and oil consumption. Read more>>

◎ On December 15, Xuchang, Kaifeng, Puyang, and Wuhan activated an orange alert (Level II) for heavily polluted weather; Xi'an and Tianjin will activate Level II emergency responses starting December 17.

◎ South Korea’s Zinc Industry announced a partnership with the U.S. government, planning to invest 7.4 billion U.S. dollars in Tennessee to build a large-scale smelter. The project will produce zinc, lead, copper, gold, silver, and other critical strategic minerals.

◎ Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, published a signed article titled “Promoting High-Quality Development of the Real Estate Sector (Studying and Implementing the Spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee),” pointing out that we must establish a safety management system covering the entire lifecycle of housing; reform and improve systems governing real estate development, financing, and sales; and fully empower city governments with autonomy in regulating the real estate market, adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in light of local conditions.

◎ The National Energy Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, proposing to add over 200 million kilowatts of new wind and solar power capacity throughout the year, and proactively plan for future energy industries such as hydrogen and nuclear energy.

◎ According to International Ship Net, from December 8 to 14, 2025, shipyards worldwide received a total of 149+2 new ship orders. Among them, Chinese shipyards received 145+2 new ship orders, while South Korean shipyards received 2 new ship orders.

17:00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Reading;

17:00 Eurozone December Services PMI Preliminary Reading;

17:30 UK December Services PMI Preliminary Reading;

17:30 UK December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Reading;

21:30 U.S. November Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change;

21:30 U.S. November Unemployment Rate;

21:30 U.S. October retail sales month-on-month;

22:45 U.S. December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Reading.

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Keywords: Luo Tiejun calls for jointly breaking the cycle of involutionary competition; the chief analyst of sheet and strip forecasts January steel prices.

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