The Drivers Behind China's High Growth in Steel Exports and the Resulting Structural Changes

　　In 2024-2025, the global trade environment saw a significant escalation of challenges for China's steel exports. Major export markets—including Southeast Asia, the European Union, and several Latin American countries—have intensively launched anti-dumping investigations targeting Chinese steel products, particularly plate materials such as hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and stainless steel. As a result, trade tensions have continued to escalate. Meanwhile, new carbon tariff mechanisms like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have begun to take substantive effect, imposing stricter requirements on carbon footprint calculations, disclosure practices, and cost responsibilities for exported goods, thereby further complicating the international trade landscape.

　　Despite facing trade barriers, China's total steel exports continued to grow strongly. Data shows that from January to September 2025, China's cumulative steel exports reached 87.96 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 7.4 million tons, representing a growth rate of 9.2%. Meanwhile, steel imports remained sluggish, with cumulative imports totaling only 4.53 million tons from January to September—a decrease of 650,000 tons, or 12.6%, compared to the same period last year.

　　The reasons behind the robust growth in steel exports can be broadly attributed to three factors: first, the intensifying domestic supply-demand imbalance—particularly the severe oversupply of construction steel—has boosted exporters' proactive willingness to expand overseas; second, significant cost advantages have created a sizable price gap between domestic and international markets; and third, adjustments in export products and destination countries have allowed exporters to adapt their strategies dynamically over time.

　　Domestic construction steel is experiencing a structural surplus, prompting companies to significantly step up their export efforts. Meanwhile, China's real estate market continues to undergo deep adjustments, compounded by a gradual slowdown in infrastructure investment growth—both factors have led to a sharp decline in demand for construction steel (primarily long products like rebar and wire rod), with apparent consumption falling by as much as 7.2% year-on-year from January to September. This resulting structural oversupply, particularly the severe inventory pressure on construction steel products, has forced steelmakers to turn their attention toward international markets, ramping up exports to ease the mounting domestic pressure on steel inventories.

　　China's steel materials

　　Domestic coking coal production remains stable, and coupled with the increased volume of low-cost coking coal imports from Mongolia, Chinese steelmakers are now benefiting from coking coal procurement costs that are 30% to 40% lower than those in Europe. In terms of energy costs, large domestic steel plants, which rely primarily on self-owned power plants (mainly coal-fired), achieve an electricity consumption cost of approximately $40 per ton of steel—more than 60% lower than in Europe, where natural gas-fired power generation dominates. Meanwhile, China's robust production scale, well-developed upstream and downstream support systems, highly efficient logistics networks, and ongoing advancements in process technologies collectively create a comprehensive cost advantage that is unlikely to be challenged in the short term.

　　Export strategy adjustment,

　　The increase in exports stemmed from long products. With domestic demand collapsing, the severe overcapacity in construction steel (long products) has left the industry heavily reliant on exports—particularly finished long products and billets used as raw materials for long products—to absorb the surplus in the short term. As a result, exports have become a critical factor in balancing domestic supply and demand. From January to September, cumulative exports of rebar, wire rod, structural steel, and steel pipes surged by 44%, 54%, 47%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively.

　　The growth rate of plate exports has slowed down. Directly hit by anti-dumping measures, the export growth of common plates—such as hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel—has significantly decelerated, with some even experiencing declines. From January to September, cumulative hot-rolled plate exports fell by 17.7% year-on-year. In response, exporters are actively adjusting their strategies: on one hand, they're exploring niche plate and strip products less affected by trade barriers (like high-end steel grades and specialty coated sheets), while on the other hand, they're focusing on exporting semi-finished products to enhance compliance.

　　Steel billet exports surged dramatically, with a significant increase in total volume—primarily driven by long-product billets (square billets). From January to September, China’s total steel billet exports reached 10.74 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 214%. Sources indicate that exporters are actively working to expand their product range, aiming to navigate the increasingly challenging global market amid rising international trade barriers.

　　China Adjusts Structure of Steel Export Destinations

　　Traditional markets are under pressure. Although Vietnam remains China's largest export destination for steel (with cumulative shipments of 7.12 million tons from January to September), its exports have plummeted by 24.9% year-on-year, severely impacted by the country's frequent anti-dumping measures targeting Chinese products—five cases were already ruled against China as of 2025. Additionally, South Korea's anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel have also led to a decline in export volumes.

　　Emerging markets are on the rise. Other Southeast Asian nations have effectively offset the declines in Vietnam and South Korea by filling the gap with incremental growth. Meanwhile, infrastructure projects in Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to advance, driving up China's reliance on steel products—particularly high-end sheet metal and structural steel. Meanwhile, Africa's market potential is finally being unlocked, with significant surges in imports from countries such as Nigeria, Tanzania, and Ghana, making these nations new engines of growth. In South America, steel import demand is rebounding amid broader macroeconomic recovery, with increased volumes being recorded in countries like Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

　　In summary, supported by strong global cost competitiveness and flexible export strategies, steel exports are expected to reach 120 million tons in 2025, hitting a new all-time high, and remain steady at around 110–120 million tons in 2026. In terms of product mix, long products and steel billets will surge as the main export drivers, while plate exports are likely to see slower growth due to ongoing trade frictions. Regionally, export destinations are diversifying rapidly, with continued expansion into emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.