2026 Steel Market Winter Stockpiling Outlook

Key takeaway: Against the backdrop of a generally warmer macroeconomic environment and supportive cost conditions, steel prices are expected to perform reasonably well in the first quarter. Judging from the winter storage policies already released, steel mills have adopted relatively favorable settlement terms and interest rates for downstream winter storage. However, despite their somewhat pessimistic outlook on next year’s demand, steel traders remain relatively reluctant to engage in winter storage activities. It is anticipated that winter steel storage volumes in 2026 will likely be similar to those in 2025, with the overall market volume remaining modest.

I. Some steel mills have released their winter stockpiling policies for 2026.

According to an incomplete tally by Mysteel, as of December 25, 2025, six steel mills have released their winter stockpiling policies for 2026, including three from Northeast China, three from North China, and one from Northwest China. The winter stockpiling period generally ends before April 15, 2026. The specific details are as follows:

As January approaches, the vast majority of steel mills are adopting a stance of “no plans yet” or “it’s still too early” regarding winter stockpiling. On the one hand, the 2026 Spring Festival falls in mid-February, about 19 days later than the January 28th date in 2025, making it premature to introduce “winter stockpiling policies.” On the other hand, with macroeconomic support and industry pressures remaining relatively mild, steel mills are still carefully considering whether to implement such policies. Among the winter stockpiling policies already announced by steel mills, most offer trade partners deferred payment at settlement points, while some provide palletizing services. In terms of pricing, the direct threaded rebar purchase price in the North China region is 3,200 yuan per ton, while in Inner Mongolia, the purchase prices range from 2,910 to 2,990 yuan per ton.

In 2025, the steel mills’ winter storage policy is relatively favorable to traders. One steel mill allows traders to choose the most advantageous pricing method—either “spot price” or “monthly average price”—for final settlement based on market conditions. Moreover, one steel mill has even announced a pricing and settlement policy of “no increase when prices rise, but a reduction when prices fall,” clearly demonstrating the steel mills’ strong pressure and willingness to actively sell their products.

II. Changes and Outlook for Winter Stockpiling Trends

Looking at the market performance in the first quarter of 2026, the steel market is likely to show a trend of rising first and then falling, with little change in the price center of gravity.

1. Steel prices may strengthen in January and February.

The macroeconomic environment is relatively warm. Recently, U.S.-China relations have eased, and the trade environment has improved. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts have boosted global monetary liquidity, which is favorable for commodity prices. Domestically, efforts are being coordinated from both the demand and supply sides, with a series of targeted measures introduced in areas such as consumption stimulus, combating excessive internal competition, market regulation, and industrial upgrading, thereby establishing a comprehensive economic support system.

The industrial performance remains robust. As the concentrated maintenance at steel mills comes to an end and molten iron production rebounds, coupled with steel mills replenishing their winter inventories of raw materials, raw material prices are likely to remain relatively strong. For now, there’s no significant pressure on the steel industry, and rising costs could drive steel prices higher.

In February and March, the steel market may face the risk of a decline.

After the key meetings in early March conclude, the macro narrative will come to an end. On the industry front, supply-and-demand dynamics will take center stage and drive market trends.

In terms of steel demand, the real estate and construction sectors continue to perform poorly, with various indicators still showing a significant downward trend. It is expected that front-end construction starts will remain sluggish through 2026, making it difficult to be optimistic about demand during the “Golden March and Silver April” period. On the infrastructure front, China’s key infrastructure projects are already relatively well-developed; emerging infrastructure—such as photovoltaic, wind power, and 5G base stations—has become a new driver of growth, while urban renewal is generating some modest steel demand. Overall, steel consumption for infrastructure is unlikely to improve significantly. In the manufacturing sector, the domestic home appliance industry is mainly driven by replacement and upgrading, while overseas export markets remain to be further developed. Although the purchase tax on new energy vehicles has been halved, demand growth may slow down. In the machinery industry, electrification and ongoing industry upgrades will continue to boost production and sales volumes. Meanwhile, the shipbuilding industry, benefiting from a “major cycle” of replacement and modernization, will see continued growth in steel consumption. Overall, it is anticipated that steel demand growth in the manufacturing sector in 2026 will likely decline compared to 2025. Taken together, steel demand in 2026 is expected to show a slight decrease relative to 2025 levels.

From the perspective of supply and demand in the steel market, overcapacity remains a key issue, and the industry’s oversupply situation continues to put downward pressure on steel prices. Steel demand in March may fall short of expectations, raising the risk of price declines.

III. Steel traders remain cautious in their winter stockpiling behavior.

Although steel mills’ winter stocking policies are favorable and current steel prices are already undervalued, steel traders remain reluctant to stock up for the winter.

On the one hand, steel demand continues to decline, putting significant pressure on steel traders to sell their inventory. Against the backdrop of a persistently sluggish real estate market and slowing growth in infrastructure investment, the market generally expects that demand for construction steel will further decline in 2026. Several institutions forecast that in 2026, real estate investment, new project starts, construction activity, and completed projects will all continue to decline sharply, while infrastructure investment growth will see only a modest increase.

On the one hand, stockpiling during the off-season and selling during the peak season to achieve profitability has become a low-probability event. Over the past five years, with the exception of 2021—the year when economic recovery following the pandemic boosted steel demand and enabled steel traders to turn a profit—steel traders have suffered substantial losses in all other years. As a result, many steel traders have gone bankrupt and entered liquidation procedures, accelerating the industry’s consolidation. Although the black market for steel showed signs of halting its decline and stabilizing by the end of 2025, steel traders’ mindset has undergone a profound shift: “passive winter stockpiling” has become the mainstream approach in the market.

IV. Outlook for Winter Stockpiling in 2026

To sum up, against the backdrop of a generally warmer macroeconomic environment and cost support, steel prices in the first quarter are expected to perform reasonably well. Judging from the winter stockpiling policies already released, steel mills have adopted relatively favorable settlement terms and interest conditions for downstream winter stockpiling. However, despite a somewhat pessimistic outlook on next year’s demand, steel traders remain relatively reluctant to engage in winter stockpiling. It is anticipated that winter steel stockpiling in 2026 will likely resemble that of 2025, with a smaller overall market volume. For steel companies, it is important to adjust their production rhythms to ensure supply-demand alignment. For traders, the winter stockpiling window presents an opportune time to focus on high-end sheet products and special steels—segments that are currently experiencing robust demand.