As the price pattern shifts to a narrowing “W” formation and regional coordination strengthens, can the 2026 stainless steel market maintain steady progress?

I. Review of the Operational Characteristics of the Stainless Steel Market in 2025

1. Price trends have diverged, with the average annual price declining and the price range narrowing.

2. Price linkage among regions is strengthening, promoting collaboration and curbing internal competition;

3. Adjustments to sales and resource distribution strategies, with an increase in the proportion of localized operations and direct supply;

4. Fluctuations in social inventory and phased changes in the supply-demand relationship.

II. A Detailed Analysis of the 2025 Full-Year Trend Characteristics for Stainless Steel

1. Price trends have diverged, with the average annual price declining and the price range narrowing.

In 2025, stainless steel prices will follow an inverted “W”-shaped trend, initially rising and then falling before rebounding again. The periods of price increases will mainly occur in March, September, and December. The overall average market price for the year is expected to decline by 5%–10% compared to 2024. Moreover, the price volatility has narrowed by 15% from the previous year, reflecting a shift in the market from “sharp fluctuations” toward “rational adjustments.” Cost support and demand constraints are now exerting a two-way balancing effect on prices.

Among them, the average annual price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel was 13,040 yuan per ton, down 720 yuan per ton—or a decrease of 5.2%—compared to the average annual price of 13,760 yuan per ton in 2024. The highest point during the year was 13,800 yuan per ton in mid-March, while the lowest point was 12,600 yuan per ton in late June. The price difference between the high and low points was 1,200 yuan per ton, and the annual price range narrowed by 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous year.

The average annual price of 201 cold-rolled stainless steel was 7,261 yuan per ton, down 720 yuan per ton—or a 10.1% decrease—from the full-year average price of 8,077 yuan per ton in 2024. The highest point during the year was 7,900 yuan per ton in late March, while the lowest point was 6,750 yuan per ton in late June. The price difference between the high and low points reached 1,150 yuan per ton, and the annual price range narrowed by 550 yuan per ton compared to the previous year.

The average annual price of 430 cold-rolled stainless steel was 7,347 yuan per ton, down 720 yuan per ton—or 5.8%—compared to the full-year average price of 7,803 yuan per ton in 2024. The period of highest prices during the year was from September to mid-November, at 7,500 yuan per ton, while the lowest point occurred in mid-July at 6,850 yuan per ton. The price difference between the high and low points was 650 yuan per ton, and the annual price range narrowed by 350 yuan per ton compared to the previous year.

2. Price linkage among regions is strengthening, promoting collaboration and curbing internal competition.

With the acceleration of information dissemination and the continuous improvement of logistics systems, the price correlation among different regions has significantly strengthened. Previously relatively independent regional markets now see price fluctuations in the Foshan-Xi'an core market swiftly spreading to other regions. This shift is prompting companies within the industry to reflect on the “involution” model of excessive competition and begin seeking collaborative development across regions. Many companies are reducing costs and enhancing their market competitiveness by sharing resources and engaging in joint procurement, thereby better addressing the complex and ever-changing market environment.

3. Adjust sales strategies and resource distribution to accelerate direct supply and localization.

By strengthening direct-supply partnerships, leading steel mills have established long-term, stable supply-and-demand relationships with their downstream core enterprises. This not only reduces their reliance on intermediate trading links but also enhances their ability to accurately grasp market demands. The increased proportion of direct supplies has significantly improved resource circulation efficiency and effectively reduced resource accumulation.

In addition, the localized sales strategy has further optimized resource allocation. By positioning processing centers and warehousing facilities closer to the market, steel mills have shortened delivery cycles and reduced logistics costs. This model has not only improved the procurement efficiency of downstream customers but also strengthened the steel mills’ control over regional markets, thus creating a new circulation pattern characterized by “radiation from core regions and demand-driven local markets.”

4. Fluctuations in social inventory and phased changes in supply-demand relationships

Throughout the year, inventory trends showed a pattern of “first rising and then falling, with accelerated destocking toward year-end.” The inventory reached its annual peak of 1.167 million tons in July, after which it gradually declined. As of December 30, the total social inventory of stainless steel at 89 warehouses in China’s mainstream markets had fallen to 1.0051 million tons, representing a 13.9% decrease from the peak level.

The phased fluctuations in inventory reflect the stage-specific changes in supply-demand dynamics. In the first half of the year, the slow recovery in demand led to inventory accumulation. In the second half, as cost support strengthened and stocking demand was released, coupled with rational adjustments by steel mills, inventory entered a phase of accelerated destocking.

III. Summary and Outlook

The stainless steel market, amid ongoing adjustments, has completed the optimization of its supply-demand structure and industrial layout. By 2026, it may enter a new phase characterized by "strengthened cost support, steady demand recovery, and continued structural upgrading."

Three main trends need to be closely monitored: First, the shift in pricing logic driven by rising raw material costs—for instance, the recent adjustment in Indonesia’s nickel ore pricing mechanism and the contraction in raw material supply have pushed up the cost center. Second, structural opportunities arising from premiumization and green initiatives. Third, the reshaping of market dynamics triggered by policy adjustments—for example, export license management policies are promoting an upgrade in industry structure, ongoing tightening of environmental regulations is forcing capacity optimization, and expectations of looser macro liquidity will provide emotional support to the market.

In the future, industry competition will shift from mere price competition to a comprehensive battle centered on cost control, technological innovation, and service quality. Leading enterprises that possess resource advantages, technological strengths, and compliance capabilities will continue to take the lead, driving the industry toward high-quality development.