2026 Steel Indirect Export Forecast

Indirect steel exports primarily involve the export of downstream products such as machinery, metal products, ships, steel structures, household appliances, containers, automobiles, motorcycles, bicycles, and railway vehicles. According to estimates, in 2024, China's indirect steel exports amounted to approximately 134 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons over the previous year. According to Mysteel’s calculations, in 2025, indirect steel exports are expected to reach about 143 million tons, up by 9.5 million tons from the previous year—a growth rate of roughly 7%. Looking ahead to 2026, with an improving international trade environment, exports will continue to serve as a crucial pillar for China’s economic development, and it is anticipated that indirect steel exports will maintain their upward trend. It is projected that indirect steel exports could reach 150 million tons, representing an increase of around 4% to 5%.

I. 2025 Steel Indirect Export Situation and Steel Consumption Estimation

Steel indirect exports are expected to reach approximately 143 million tons in 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year increase.

In 2025, China's foreign trade exports will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend, serving as a major pillar supporting economic growth. Data show that from January to November, China's foreign trade exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year (in U.S. dollar terms). Among them, electromechanical products led the way with a growth rate of 8.0%, accounting for as much as 60.9% of total export value. Moreover, the export volumes of most electromechanical products showed substantial growth. During the same period, exports of ships, automobiles, and general-purpose machinery equipment achieved significant increases of 26.8%, 16.7%, and 6.4%, respectively.

The robust growth in exports of electromechanical products has driven an increase in indirect steel exports. These products consume large quantities of steel during their production and manufacturing processes, and the expansion of their export volume has directly boosted the growth of indirect steel exports. According to statistics, the combined growth in exports of machinery and equipment, automobiles, and household appliances accounted for over 60% of the increase in indirect steel exports.

By industry, in 2025, exports of machinery, ships, automobiles, and motorcycles will continue their growth trend.

Exports of automobiles, ships, and motorcycles surged significantly. From January to October, automobile exports (including chassis) reached 6.51 million units, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year; ship exports totaled 5,660 vessels, up 20.5% over the same period last year; and motorcycle exports reached 38.39 million units, representing a 24.9% increase year-on-year.

Exports of mechanical products showed some divergence, yet the overall volume continued to grow. Among them, exports of basic mechanical components performed relatively well, with shipments of fasteners, bearings, and hand or power tools increasing by 8.6%, 7.6%, and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively. Exports of finished mechanical products exhibited mixed trends: tractor exports rose by 20%, while exports of excavators, loaders, tower cranes, and crawler cranes increased by 15%, 12%, 42%, and 24%, respectively. By contrast, exports of food processing machinery fell by 20% year-on-year, and machine tool exports declined by 7% year-on-year.

Based on the steel consumption per unit of product, we estimate that in 2025, steel consumption for mechanical equipment exports will increase by 5.6% year-on-year; steel consumption for ship exports will rise by 22% year-on-year; steel consumption for automobile exports will grow by 21% year-on-year; steel consumption for home appliance exports will see a slight year-on-year increase of 1%; and steel consumption for container exports will decline by 11% year-on-year. In 2025, indirect steel exports are expected to reach approximately 143 million tons, representing an increase of about 7% year-on-year.

II. Factors Influencing Indirect Steel Exports in 2026

(1) The global economy will experience a moderate recovery in 2026.

After the high-interest-rate environment of 2024-2025 exerted downward pressure on inflation, central banks in major economies are expected to enter the middle to later stages of a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, leading to a significantly improved liquidity environment compared to 2025. According to forecasts by the IMF and the World Bank, global GDP growth is projected to rebound to a range of 3.0% to 3.2%.

1. Major developed countries overseas continue to maintain a dual easing stance in fiscal and monetary policies, driving economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2026, and global monetary liquidity will continue to expand. On the fiscal front, the United States has introduced the “Big Beautiful Bill,” aimed at expanding tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling. Several European countries have launched comprehensive fiscal expansion plans, including increased spending on defense, infrastructure, and other sectors, as well as relaxed deficit limits.

2. High tariffs plus high interest rates are restraining global economic growth.

Although the tariff war has somewhat cooled down, U.S. tariff policies are expected to remain volatile next year, driven by factors such as midterm elections and the need to generate fiscal revenue. Moreover, constrained by rising global protectionism, uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitics, high global debt levels, and high interest rates in advanced economies, the momentum for global economic recovery remains relatively weak.

(2) Adjustment of foreign trade layout: Emerging economies are supporting the growth of China’s foreign trade demand.

While China’s overall exports remain resilient, growth momentum is accelerating its shift toward emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, making market diversification a key driving force. This provides an important buffer and support for navigating the uncertainties that may arise in the global trade environment by 2026.

(3) The “steel export licensing system” may create conditions for facilitating indirect exports.

On December 12, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a notice announcing that, starting January 1, 2026, export licenses will be required for certain steel products. This marks the first resumption of the export licensing system in 16 years, since it was abolished in 2009. In terms of impact, small and medium-sized enterprises will face pressure due to rising compliance costs and experience short-term difficulties. In the long term, however, this policy will steer China’s steel exports toward high-value-added products—such as high-end sheet metals and special steels. While exports of ordinary steel will decline, the competitiveness of high-end steel products will be enhanced. Moreover, although direct steel exports may decrease in the future, China’s finished steel products, with their advantages of superior quality and competitive pricing, are likely to see increased demand in global markets. Thus, the policy will favor the export of finished steel products.

III. Forecast of Indirect Steel Exports for 2026

Overall, China's foreign trade exports are expected to maintain moderate-to-high growth in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of 4.5% for the year. Among these, the share of labor-intensive products (such as clothing and furniture) in total exports will continue to decline. However, these products themselves will sustain and enhance their added value through transformation toward "branding, high-end positioning, and intelligentization." Mechanical and electrical products will continue their growth trend, and the global market share of high-end manufacturing will further increase. The outlook for key steel-using industries is summarized in the table below.

It is expected that China's indirect steel exports will continue their growth trend in 2026, with steel consumption potentially reaching 150 million tons—a growth rate of around 4% to 5%. The main drivers will remain sectors such as machinery, automobiles, and shipbuilding; household appliances and metal products may see modest growth; exports of new-energy products will be significantly affected by overseas policies; and container exports remain pessimistic.