The countdown for export licenses has begun! Can China’s galvanized sheet exports reach new highs again in 2026?

Introduction: Looking back at 2025, China’s coated sheet and strip import and export market has shown a markedly divergent trend: on the export side, growth resilience has continued throughout the year, with cumulative exports expected to surpass the 21 million-ton mark; meanwhile, on the import side, the market has kept contracting, with cumulative imports declining by nearly 20% year-on-year. Driven by multiple factors—including adjustments in global demand structure, accelerated upgrading of domestic industries, and relevant policy measures—import and export trends for galvanized steel coils have also exhibited several new characteristics. This article will analyze and forecast these import and export trends from multiple perspectives.

I. Exports show resilient growth, while imports continue to contract.

Looking at China's export data for coated steel strip from 2015 to 2025, the export volume has been on a steady upward trend since 2022, reaching a peak of 19.51 million tons from January to November 2025—setting a new historical high. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China’s total exports of coated steel (strip) amounted to 1.7531 million tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 13.75% but a year-on-year increase of 9.92%. From January to November 2025, China’s total exports of coated steel (strip) reached 19.5080 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.67%. The record-high export volume of galvanized steel coils in 2025 is the result of both “internal driving forces” stemming from insufficient domestic demand and “external pulling forces” driven by expectations in overseas markets and policy developments. Moreover, this trend exhibits a distinct characteristic of “trading price for volume.”

Compared to the steady growth in export volumes, China’s imports of coated steel strips have shown a continuous downward trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China’s total imports of coated steel strips amounted to 75,400 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 19.27% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.94%. From January to November 2025, China’s total imports of coated steel strips reached 831,800 tons, marking a year-on-year decline of 18.7%. Since imported galvanized steel coils primarily serve high-end demand that cannot be met domestically or is too costly to produce locally, and given the current contraction in overall domestic demand for galvanized steel coils—as well as the fact that domestic galvanized products now meet market needs in terms of quality, cost, and supply—import volumes are naturally being squeezed. In the short term, unless demand from the domestic real estate and manufacturing sectors shows a significant rebound, import volumes are likely to remain at low levels.

II. Average export prices face downward pressure, while import prices remain volatile at high levels.

Notably, while export volumes have been growing, the average export price has continued to decline. From January to November 2025, China’s total exports of coated steel strips and sheets reached US$12.578 billion. However, the average export price in November hit its lowest level in recent years at just US$629.49 per ton—a year-on-year drop of 80% compared to the average export price of US$1,137.6 per ton at the beginning of 2023. The decline in unit export prices is a stark manifestation of the Chinese galvanized steel coil industry’s current predicament: trapped in a path dependency on “scale expansion” amid mounting internal and external pressures. To break this deadlock, the key lies in shifting from “price competition” to “value competition”—a shift that requires systemic breakthroughs in technology, branding, and green transformation.

The stark contrast between soaring import prices and downward pressure on average export prices has led to a pattern of “high-level, volatile fluctuations” in import unit prices, which have remained roughly stable at between US$1,200 and US$1,400 per ton over the past three years. These price fluctuations are not driven by any single factor alone but rather reflect the interplay of multiple forces. When domestic demand is robust and domestic substitutes encounter technological bottlenecks, overseas suppliers gain stronger bargaining power, causing import unit prices to tend toward upward movement. Conversely, when domestic demand weakens or domestic producers achieve critical breakthroughs in certain sectors, importers’ bargaining power increases, prompting them either to reduce purchases directly or to exert downward pressure on import unit prices, even leading to a decline. Thus, the “high-level volatility” in import unit prices essentially represents the monetized manifestation of the dynamic equilibrium between the urgent need for upgrading China’s high-end manufacturing sector and the gradual nature of technological advancement within its domestic steel industry.

III. Concentration of Import and Export Countries—Emerging Markets Provide Support

From the perspective of export structure, there is a clear concentration of exporting countries for coated sheet and strip products. Thanks to their cost advantages, ordinary galvanized steel coils for general construction applications are primarily targeted at markets in Southeast Asia and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. Among these, the Southeast Asian market accounts for as much as 45%. By 2025, among the top ten exporting countries, Thailand, South Korea, and the Philippines rank in the top three, with the Philippines exporting 1.726 million tons, Thailand 1.54 million tons, and South Korea 1.348 million tons. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports reached 460,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.83%. The key driving factors behind this growth are the accelerated pace of infrastructure development and the rapid expansion of the automotive manufacturing industry in the region, which have generated robust demand. Meanwhile, high-end specialty galvanized steel coils are gradually penetrating certain European and American markets, though at a relatively limited scale.

China’s import market structure is highly concentrated, with Japan and South Korea serving as the core sources of imports, accounting for 38% and 35% of total imports, respectively. Companies such as Japan’s Kobe Steel and South Korea’s Hyundai Steel, leveraging advanced technological processes, boast superior performance stability and environmental compliance in their products, enabling them to meet the stringent demands of the Chinese market for high-end goods. However, as domestic enterprises accelerate their technological upgrades, China’s reliance on imported high-end galvanized steel coils is gradually declining, and the growth rate of imports has begun to slow down. Specifically, from January to November 2025, South Korea’s imports totaled 332,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.93%; Japan’s imports amounted to 278,400 tons, down 13.58% year-on-year. Among the top ten importing countries, 70% showed a contraction in import volumes.

IV. Policies and Impacts Related to the Import and Export of Galvanized Steel Coils

In 2025, the global trade policy environment for galvanized steel coil remains complex. For the purpose of protecting their domestic industries, various countries have implemented diverse trade restriction measures, including anti-dumping duties and anti-circumvention investigations. The implementation of these policies is affecting China’s export volumes. The primary impact is the increase in export costs: most companies are facing high anti-dumping tariffs—such as Malaysia’s 26.80% tariff, the European Union’s anti-dumping duties, and Colombia’s substantial anti-dumping taxes—which significantly weaken their price competitiveness. At the same time, market entry barriers are rising. Uncertainties surrounding Brazil’s anti-dumping investigations and the EU’s stringent environmental requirements, such as carbon footprint standards, are forcing companies to reassess the profit margins and feasibility of operating in Southeast Asia. This could prompt companies to adjust their global supply chain strategies or shift toward emerging markets like Africa, where policy barriers are relatively lower. Therefore, in response to these policy developments, it is recommended that galvanized steel coil exporters closely monitor policy changes, deeply cultivate compliant business practices to secure favorable tax rates, simultaneously enhance green and low-carbon technologies and increase product added value, and strengthen their core competitive advantages.

Five

1. Resilient Growth in Exports: Based on current global market demand and China’s competitive domestic production capacity, the export volume of galvanized steel coils from China is expected to continue its growth trajectory while undergoing structural optimization. By 2026, China’s total exports of coated steel sheets (strips) are projected to reach between 21 million and 21.5 million tons, maintaining the growth trend observed in 2025 but with a slightly slower pace of expansion. However, due to the implementation of the steel product export licensing system starting from January 2026, exports of low-value-added and non-compliant products will further contract, posing ongoing significant challenges for exporters. In terms of market positioning, Southeast Asia remains a core region; yet, affected by anti-dumping duties imposed by Malaysia, exports to this region will increasingly concentrate on compliant enterprises operating at lower tax rates. At the same time, companies are accelerating their efforts to tap into emerging markets such as Africa and the Middle East—regions characterized by relatively lower policy barriers—and the effectiveness of this diversified market strategy is gradually becoming evident.

2. Slight Decline in Imports: Based on the current pace of domestic industrial upgrading, changes in market demand structure, and the trend toward domestic substitution, China’s imports of galvanized sheet and coil will continue to decline, with the import mix increasingly shifting toward “high-end products.” It is projected that in 2026, imports of coated sheets (and strips) will reach 800,000 to 900,000 tons, representing a 20% year-on-year decrease. Moreover, the structure of imports will further concentrate on high-end products—such as those with special coatings and ultra-high strength—that have not yet achieved stable mass production domestically, primarily coming from countries like Japan and South Korea. Overall, imports of galvanized sheet and coil will continue to play the role of a “supplement” to the domestic market, making large-scale growth unlikely. The key variables influencing this trend are the pace at which domestic high-end production capacity is being released and price fluctuations in overseas markets.