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Ceasefire unlikely to ease Iran’s tight steel supply; semi-finished product prices may remain high.

Category: Blog

Time:2026-04-10

　　Despite the two-week ceasefire announced by the United States and Iran, a significant recovery in Iranian steel supplies is unlikely in the near term. At the end of March, airstrikes inflicted substantial damage on Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, forcing both mills to suspend production due to severe facility damage. Market expectations are that repairs and resumption of operations will take several months, further tightening the supply of semi-finished steel products. Together, the two companies have an annual capacity of approximately 14 million tonnes and are key suppliers in the semi-finished steel market.
　　The ceasefire news may to some extent ease pressure on production costs and could help resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Influenced by the market’s initial reaction, European natural gas prices and near-month Brent crude oil futures both fell sharply on Wednesday, which may help bring down energy, fuel oil, and maritime transport costs, thereby providing some relief for producers and exporters.
　　However, from the supply side, it will still take time for Iran’s major steel mills to resume production, making it difficult to generate any meaningful incremental supply in the short term. Consequently, expectations of a tightening supply continue to underpin billet and square billet prices. According to Argus assessments, since late February, Asian FOB billet prices have risen by USD 24 per tonne, while ASEAN CFR square billet prices have increased by USD 30 per tonne. Iranian resource prices have also strengthened, with one April-loading deal commanding USD 26 per tonne more than the March-loading price.
　　During March, driven by rising energy costs, several steel mills in Asia and Europe—particularly those producing long products—raised their prices. At the same time, some ocean freight providers also increased their CFR quotations to offset higher freight and logistics expenses.
　　Market sources say the ceasefire announcement did not yet have an immediate impact on steel prices that day, but the euro’s strengthening against the U.S. dollar has already affected the conversion of import prices. Some traders note that if the ceasefire collapses, the risk of another blockage in the Strait of Hormuz remains high, which could in turn make shipowners less willing to accept cargo shipments from the Gulf region.

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Ceasefire unlikely to ease Iran’s tight steel supply; semi-finished product prices may remain high.

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