The International Recycling Bureau highlights the key risks facing the global scrap steel market in the first quarter of 2026.

The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) stated in a report that, as 2026 begins, the global scrap steel market is confronting a complex landscape marked by geopolitical disruptions, divergent regional demand cycles, and an accelerating structural shift toward low-carbon steelmaking—making it one of the most challenging years for the scrap steel industry in over a decade.
　　The organization emphasized that freight rates and geopolitical disruptions remain among the most significant market drivers. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply increased the war-risk premium, marine fuel costs, and shipping rates across Turkey, India, Pakistan, and much of Asia. Weak domestic steel demand in China, coupled with persistent oversupply, continues to weigh on Asian steel consumption and export markets, while rising landed costs are prompting many countries to shift toward domestic scrap and alternative raw material sourcing. Despite short-term volatility, BIR’s Ferrous Metals Division remains confident that scrap steel is a strategic cornerstone of the global decarbonization roadmap through 2050.
　　Denis Reuter, a member of the board of BIR’s Ferrous Metals Division and of Germany’s TSR Recycling GmbH & Co. KG, stated that, supported by robust industrial orders and government stimulus measures, Germany is showing early signs of economic stabilization in early 2026. However, persistently high energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and weak global demand continue to weigh on the steel industry, while tight scrap supplies and logistical bottlenecks are bolstering domestic scrap prices. Mogens Bach Christensen of Denmark’s H.J. Hansen Genvindingsindustri A/S added that, amid subdued steel demand in Europe, squeezed profit margins at Turkish steel mills, and intensifying competition between billets and pig iron, the Nordic scrap market remains directionless. Meanwhile, Tom Bird of UK-based Enicor noted that UK HMS export prices to Turkey have risen to around $410–$415 per tonne, but sharply higher freight rates have eroded exporters’ FOB earnings.
　　Abhijeet Mahanta, a member of the Board of Directors of BIR’s Ferrous Metals Division and of Switzerland’s Stelaris Resources AG, emphasized that Turkey’s scrap steel market experienced significant volatility in the first quarter of 2026, driven by Middle East tensions, soaring freight and energy costs, and restrictive monetary policies. In March, reports indicated that more than 30 deep-sea shipments were booked within three days, pushing HMS 80:20 prices close to USD 396 per tonne CFR Turkey, while the United States, amid shifting freight economics and evolving global trade flows, has once again become Turkey’s leading supplier of scrap steel.
　　George Adams, a member of the board of directors of BIR’s Ferrous Metals Division and with U.S.-based SA Recycling, stated that the U.S. scrap steel market remains relatively resilient, supported by robust domestic steel mill demand, import tariffs, a self‑imposed low‑inventory strategy, and steel mill operating rates exceeding 80%. Rising hot‑rolled coil prices above $1,070 per tonne, coupled with tightening global scrap supply, continue to underpin domestic scrap demand, despite an improvement in spring scrap flows.
　　Michael Gaylard, a member of the board of BIR’s Ferrous Metals Division and with U.S.-based SIMS Ltd., noted that weak domestic demand in China, persistent oversupply, and a slowdown in exports continue to weigh on Asia’s scrap steel market. Sanjay Mehta of India’s MRAI emphasized that, driven by rising import costs and rupee depreciation, steelmakers are increasingly turning to domestic ferrous raw materials and direct reduced iron‑based production; as a result, India’s scrap steel imports fell by more than 55% year on year in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Ted Taya of Japan’s Shinsei Scrap Co. Ltd. stated that Japan’s scrap steel market has strengthened amid a recovery in domestic demand and robust export activity, with Kanto tender prices hitting multiyear highs.
　　Quintin Starkey of the South African Metal Recyclers Association stated that South Africa’s scrap steel market remains constrained by preferential pricing schemes, weak downstream steel demand, and rand volatility. Moosa Kazim, a member of the BIR Ferrous Metals Division Board and with the UAE’s Al-Qaryan Group, emphasized that GCC markets are focused on stabilizing scrap steel supplies through coordinated procurement strategies, while Saudi Arabia is accelerating its shift toward scrap‑based production amid persistently high freight and insurance costs.